Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
