Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
